Queensland’s housing industry continues to show resilience, even as recent interest rate rises have softened buyer sentiment across Australia. According to Commonwealth Bank economists, elevated rates are weighing on demand and are expected to keep national price growth modest over the next two years. But the impact isn’t uniform across the country — and Queensland remains one of the standout performers.
CoreLogic’s market indicators, referenced in CBA’s housing outlook, highlight that while price momentum has slowed, Queensland’s fundamentals remain strong. Tight housing supply, ongoing interstate migration, and a steady pipeline of construction activity have helped the state avoid the deeper corrections seen in Sydney and Melbourne. In short, Queensland is still operating in a “two‑speed market,” outperforming the southern capitals.
Medium‑Term Expectations After Rate Rises
CBA’s latest forecasts suggest national dwelling prices will remain broadly flat through 2026 as higher rates and softer sentiment continue to influence buyer behaviour. However, their economists expect conditions to improve in 2027, with national prices returning to moderate growth as borrowing capacity stabilises and inflation continues to ease.
For Queensland, this outlook is even more encouraging. The state’s stronger‑than‑average performance — driven by supply constraints and population growth — positions it well for steady progress now and a healthier upswing once rates begin to normalise.
What This Means for Builders, Suppliers and Homeowners
While rate rises have introduced a more cautious environment, they haven’t stalled Queensland’s housing activity. Projects are still moving ahead, though with more deliberate planning, tighter budgeting, and a focus on value. The medium‑term expectation is stability now, followed by renewed growth as confidence returns.
Queensland remains one of Australia’s most resilient housing markets — and the combined insights from Commonwealth Bank, the RBA rate cycle, and CoreLogic all point to a measured but positive path forward.